It is always important when analyzing data to consider the relevance and importance of such numbers. So, before looking at the numbers from the lastest ISM reports, let us look at what Briefing.com states about the ISM manufacturing reports at Economic Releases: ISM Index. Under the title “Big Picture” it states the following:
This is a highly overrated index. It is merely a survey of purchasing managers. It is a diffusion index, which means that it reflects the number of people saying conditions are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse. It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse. It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms. The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.
Obviously any report can be overrated if interpreted in the wrong way. One way this report seems to be over used and misinterpreted is by relative changes in the index instead of considering the “breakevens” in practice. For example if the headline ISM index drops by 6 points it is significantly more important if it drops from above 50 to below 50 than if the index drops from the 60s to 50s range. The first signifying a reversal of growth and the second a slowing of the growth rate which might actually be good. That is, instead of an overheated economy with growing number of bottlenecks it may signify a stable growth trajectory.
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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has again graced us with another two reports on the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. In this and other posts on the ISM, we wish to delve deeper into the raw numbers and get a better degree of understanding of the underlying currents in the macro-economy. Along the way let us also look at other voices and opinions of the macro-view.
Headline Numbers of ISM Report On Business®.
The PMI index {manufacturing index} was reported as 56.2% and NMI (non-manufacturing index/composite index) was reported as 53.8%. Both numbers missed Market Watch’s Economic Calendar consensus numbers with ISM Manufacturing consensus at 59% and Non-Manufacturing at 55.3%. Econoday reports ISM Mfg Index as 59 consensus and the range as 57.6 to 59.7 and ISM Non-Mfg Index as 55 consensus and the range as 53.5 to 56 which indicates that only non-manufacturing fell within the range of consensus.
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The positive portent of the first day of the trading year did not hold through for the DOW as the index dropped nearly 3.5 percentage points in January. Let us just assume that Mark Hulbert is correct that it means little. Returning to one of my favorite subjects, Fox Business provides a good analysis of the January 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® at the article entitled Manufacturing Posted Another Strong Month in January. Let me quote some of the more important positive portions.
The Institute for Supply Management said Monday that its closely watched PMI rose to 58.4 from 54.9 in December, hitting its highest point since the 58.5 touched in August 2004.
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Just before bed last night, I was checking my emails for any alerts and found the following short note at Sen. Sanders to place hold on Bernanke nomination. It does not seem likely that Sanders will or can block Bernanke’s nomination as the President already showed support for his nomination and Sanders can only delay the process some. From Sanders own newsroom comes:
‘He’s part of the problem’
A Senate panel this week will hold a hearing on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s nomination to a second term in charge of the nation’s central bank. The appointment is subject to Senate confirmation. Senator Bernie Sanders said he will vote no. “The middle class of America is collapsing; we have seen incredible greed, recklessness and illegal behavior on Wall Street. This guy…missed the boat on the most significant economic crisis since the Great Depression,” Sanders said Monday on “Morning Meeting” on MSNBC. “We need a whole new direction in the Fed and in our economic policies. A direction that stands up for a change, not for the rich, not for the top 1 percent, not for the giant financial institutions, but for the working class and the middle class of this country. Nobody thinks that Ben Bernanke is that person.”
That is, other than the President and most of the Senate. One of sanders loudest complaints that does seem to hold some water was Bernanke’s handling of the TARP process but so many others were involved in that that it hardly can be blamed solely on the Fed Chairman. Some of his other complaints were the Fed did not “stop the casino-type activities of large financial companies”, demanding bailed-out banks lower interest rates on credit cards, unemployment nearly doubled, and 120 banks failed. While it is most definitely true that a lot of stuff has happened on Ben Bernanke’s time, it is hard to place all the blame on him.
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