Focus: Global Oil
The MacroReport on Global Oil issue, published June 11, 2012, considered the effects on the price of global oil of a combination of three broad possible issues: (1) the Eurozone's failed efforts to rein in its sovereign debt crisis; (2) the cooling of Iran's quest to increase its enriched uranium stockpile, resulting in a more stabilized Middle East; and (3) the potential of shale oil as a game-changer for the United States' energy needs.
Global Oil: Comparing Scenarios
Global Oil: Optimized ETFs
Global Oil: Optimized S&P 1500
Global Oil: Correlations of Returns and Values
|The Scenario Box: Low Crude Prices, Medium Crude Prices, and High Crude Prices|
|EQUITY MARKETS||INFLATION AND PRICES||OTHER FACTORS|
|Low||Rises||Rises Sharply||Rises||Falls||Falls||Rises Sharply||Falls||Rises||Falls Sharply||Rises|
|Medium||No Change||Rises Slightly||No Change||No Change||No Change||Rises Slightly||No Change||No Change||No Change||Rises Slightly|
|High||Falls||Falls Sharply||Falls Sharply||Rises Sharply||Rises||Falls Sharply||Falls||Rises||Rises Sharply||Falls Sharply|
|Source: MacroRisk Analytics|
Here's a comparison of the current economic conditions for these three scenarios with the conditions that existed at the time of the report's publication (June 11, 2012), and an update of the Optimized ETF Portfolios and our QuickResponse Stock Portfolios.