about us     blog      careers      literature      contact us    
Sabrient Logo

Focus: Global Oil

The MacroReport on Global Oil issue, published June 11, 2012, considered the effects on the price of global oil of a combination of three broad possible issues: (1) the Eurozone's failed efforts to rein in its sovereign debt crisis; (2) the cooling of Iran's quest to increase its enriched uranium stockpile, resulting in a more stabilized Middle East; and (3) the potential of shale oil as a game-changer for the United States' energy needs.

Broadly speaking, the possible outcomes include Low Crude Oil Prices, Medium Crude Oil Prices, and High Crude Oil Prices. These three economic scenarios were constructed by considering changes in each of the driving factors as shown in the "scenario box," below.

The indicators that were selected as proxies to best reflect trends within the multiple scenarios include the Baltic Dry Shipping Index and the Dow Jones Transportation Index as proxies for shipping and transportation; the S&P 500 and the VIX Market Volatility Index as proxies for the equity markets; the euro, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), and the CPI-U Motor Fuel Indicator as proxies for inflation and prices; and other factors including the KBW Bank Index, Rogers Commodity Index, and the Consumer Confidence Indicator.



Download Report

Global Oil: Comparing Scenarios
Global Oil: Optimized ETFs
Global Oil: Optimized S&P 1500
Global Oil: Correlations of Returns and Values

QuickResponse™ Portfolios
InterActive: Home
The Scenario Box: Low Crude Prices, Medium Crude Prices, and High Crude Prices
SCENARIO SHIPPING AND
TRANSPORTATION		 EQUITY MARKETS INFLATION AND PRICES OTHER FACTORS
Crude Prices Baltic
Dry Shipping
Index		 Dow Jones
Transportation		 SPX -
S&P 500 		VIX
Market Volatility		 CPI-U:
Motor Fuel		 PMI Euro KBW Bank
Index		 Rogers
Commodity
Index 		Consumer
Confidence
Low Rises Rises Sharply Rises Falls Falls Rises Sharply Falls Rises Falls Sharply Rises
Medium No Change Rises Slightly No Change No Change No Change Rises Slightly No Change No Change No Change Rises Slightly
High Falls Falls Sharply Falls Sharply Rises Sharply Rises Falls Sharply Falls Rises Rises Sharply Falls Sharply
Source: MacroRisk Analytics
These changes were then analyzed in terms of their impact on a set of 18 MacroRisk Factors, developed by MacroRisk Analytics, and from there, on the Indexes and ETFs that are being analyzed.

Here's a comparison of the current economic conditions for these three scenarios with the conditions that existed at the time of the report's publication (June 11, 2012), and an update of the Optimized ETF Portfolios and our QuickResponse Stock Portfolios.

Disclaimer      Contact Us      Privacy Policy      Terms of Use